Pitchers and Stacks – 8/29
Pitchers and Stacks
In general while playing mostly GPP in MLB DFS, I rarely pay up for pitching and try to look for midrange or lower priced pitchers that could do well for GPPs. I like to find guys that typically are rarely on the radar, but regardless I just do not like to pay up for pitching in MLB.
It does not always work, but typically most of your higher priced pitchers are going to be the chalkiest and I want to avoid the chalk.
Luke Weaver- Currently a -130 favorite with a game total of 9. Luke currently on the season has 9.8% swinging strike rate and 28% strikeout %. Over his last 30 days, those numbers go to 11.2 swinging strikes and 25% strikeout rate. Luke is facing a Brewers team that has struck out 25.7% vs. right handed pitchers for the year, 28.85% for the past 14 days and 31.20 over the past 7. The strikeout upside is there but it comes with a little risk as they are playing in Milwaukee which is hitter friendly
Jake Arrieta- Although up there in price at $9900 I think he makes for a great pivot off Chris Sale. The Pirates have struggled against right handed pitching recently while Jake has been better as the year has gone on. The Pirates own the 5th worst wrc+ vs right handed pitchers for the year and 4th worst over the past 14 days. Pirates also strike out 28.95% of the time to right handers over the past 7 days while Arrieta owns a 23.4% strikeout rate with a 9.2% swinging strike rate over the past 30 days.
Matt Moore- Moore gets to face a Padres team that I love to attack with left handed pitching. Moore is typically better at home and during the day so it is risky but the matchup against the Padres is worth the risk. Moore has a 23.1 strikeout % over his last 30 days. The Padres strikeout to left handers at a 25.85% clip over the last 30 days and 27.5% over their last 14. Padres also own the 3rd worst wrc+(66) over last 30 days and 2nd worst over their last 14 days(53) against left handed pitching. Moore will be likely the pitcher I use the most tonight.
Alex Cobb- Let’s be honest, Cobb has not been very good this year, but Pruitt hasn’t been much better even though he pitched well last night against a Royals team that has forgotten how to hit. The Royals have not scored in 4 games and while very risky as Cobb owns a 47.1% hard % over his last 30 days, Pruitt wasn’t very far behind at 37.1%. Royals own the worst wrc+ (41) of any team playing tonight against either hand. It’s very risky as Cobb could blow up but I might end up playing both sides of this game in my lineups tonight.
Cardinals- Matt Garza allows 36.90% hard to lefties this year while only striking out 11.80%. As a Cardinal fan for most of my life, I know sometimes they can play up to pitching or down to pitching. I am hopeful tonight is not one of those nights. The lefties you want are Carpenter, Dejong, Fowler and Wong. With Dejong and Wong being my favorites if you want to use one offs.
Houston- Perez allows 37% hard to right handed batters while only striking out 12.4% of them. Houston is starting to get some bats back and the righties are the ones you want to use. JD Davis is at top of the sheets and I will want some shares if he starts. Springer kills left handed pitchers and specifically ones that are typically ground ball pitchers which Perez typically is. Bregman and Altuve would be nice additions to the stack. Astros have some fire in them tonight as they are not happy with the Rangers not switching series locations due to Hurricane Harvey. This game has been moved to Tampa.
Tampa- Speaking of Tampa, the Rays exploded last night for 12 runs and were very low owned for the great matchup they had last night. I like both sides of the plate for the Rays as Junis allows 37% hard % to both sides. I would likely go with the hot bats of Duda, Morrison, Kiermaier, and either Souza or Longoria. But wouldn’t hate any of the bats from the Rays tonight. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a home run from whoever catches for the Rays tonight if you need a cheap option.
Reds- Flexen has allowed 36% hard % to right handed batters and 31% to left, so I prefer the right handers but Flexen also strikes out right handers(20%) a little more than left(17%). As some friends have called it (@costasteve7256) Coors Field East, the Reds are almost always in play. Favorites here are Schebler, Suarez, Gennett, Cozart, and Votto.
I didn’t include Baltimore or Washington in this list but I love them tonight too. They play the first games of the night so we should know if they are going to play. They are both in great spots and might find a little ownership due to weather. I mentioned in a couple chats last night that the Nationals are starting to get some bats back (Werth) and that may help them get out of the drought they were in and sure enough did they explode and Werth homered. Trea Turner is supposed to be back tonight as well and will make that line up more explosive!
Good luck and feel free to hit me up on twitter @wallenfunk with any questions!