MLB Main thoughts 8.20.18
These short write ups are going to give each teams strengths against the opposing pitcher and what I think about the overall match up. Some will be more specific if the match up warrants. I’ll try to also share if I like the pitcher or not. The batters listed are the ones that I would look to first if I was attacking the opposing pitcher or fears for the pitcher if you decide to use. Keep in mind some of these players may or may not play as I break them down before the lineups are posted. Hope the information helps. As long as it keeps helping people I’ll continue to post for free. But you have to let me know that is helping or you like the content!!
Braves vs Archer. Freeman .552, Suzuki, Acuna, Markakis .411 present the biggest obstacles for Archer. Archer allows .353 xwoba to lefties and .330 to right. Archer still has a good k rate of 27% to both sides but can get hit hard. Its a risky spot but other than Inciarte, Suzuki, and Markakis the Braves swinging strike does not look good at all. At 7800 on draftkings its worth a gpp dart but risky. Like the above mentioned bats if stacking
Orioles vs Estrada Estrada allows .376 xwoba to righties and .311 to left. Estrada strikes out both sides at 20%. Rickard .549, Beckham .524, are the xwoba issues for Estrada but the whole Orioles team presents k upside for Estrada as the swinging strike is weak for Orioles. Estrada is cheap and worth a gpp punt
Red Sox vs Kluber. Strength vs strength here and I side a bit on Red Sox tonight. Salaries are still up there for Red Sox will likely keep me away other than a punt here or there. Kinsler, JD, Betts, Benintendi, Pearce, Moreland all have over .400 xwoba vs Kluber pitch type. Red Sox made good contact on Kluber pitch type and I will be fading Kluber tonight
Reds vs Anderson. Likely to go a bit under owned again tonight with the other obvious good spots for teams but I really like them again tonight. I had 5 reds bats the other night at a total of 5% owned Saturday and wont be that low but will be low. Anderson owns a 5.03 era and 6.23 FIP at home this year allowing 16 of his allowed 24 homers this year. Anderson allows .391 xwoba to righties which would be my focal point. Suarez .353, Casali .499 and Peraza .350 would be first ones in followed with Ervin, Barnhart, Scooter and Ervin. Stack away here.
Indians vs Porcello. I like to pick on Porcello and will definitely have shares of Indians tonight. Indians have struggled a bit on the road this year but still like them. Might be a bit popular with the cheaper Indian bats to fill out lineups tonight but dont mind any of them. Diaz .501, Lindor .405, Jram .364, Brantley .427, and Alonso .360 would be my starting points.
Astros vs Hernandez. Hernandez has been pretty bad this year but a bit better at home. Astros do not particularly match up well on Hernandez pitches but as bad as Hernandez has been I am interested in Astros. Bregman .424, Springer .378, Gattis .382, are the xwoba leaders. Hernandez gets hit harder from the left side at .390 xwoba and right at .350. Hernandez only Ks both sides about 19% but the ss is in favor of Hernandez tonight. Hearing Altuve may be back this series just not sure about tonight.
Royals vs Wood(bullpen Game). Too bad a bullpen game as there would be some interest here in pitcher vs Royals. Gordon .427 is the only Royal above .325 xwoba and the ss looks atrocious for Royals tonight. Will stay away from bats and unless confirmed reliever goes long innings here will aoid Rays pitching
Dodgers vs Gomber. Gomber has been pretty good this year in a small sample and really been exceeding his peripheral stats. He comes into the game with a 2.89 ERA but a .426 FIP. Gomber has allowed .377 xwoba to both sides and has a respectable k rate of 20% to both sides. Kemp .612 xwoba, Machado, and Turner present the challenges in my opinion. Gomber in 4 starts has went for 25.3, 17.7, 5, and 19.9 draftkings points. Hearing about the dodgers throughout the day and appears they may be chalky. I dont mind dodgers but also dont mind Gomber as gpp dart. I personally think Gomber is a better pitcher than most give him credit.
Brewers vs Bailey. Lets just make it a game stack in this game. Bailey allows .411 xwoba to right and .372 xwoba to left.Shaw .449, .408, Thames .477 look like the main problems for Bailey. With that said and how bad Bailey has been this year I am intrigued with him especially on draftkings at $4300. The swinging strike is very much in his favor tonight enough for me to warrant consideration. It is very risky but getting double digit points out of him is not out of the question and at his price could really pay off and allow you to throw an elite pitcher and big bats. I will also mention that Bailey k rate for the season has been around 14% but his last 4 starts and coming off DL his k rate is 20%. Again big risk here but could pay huge dividends.
Twins vs Giolito. Mauer .428, Rosario .440, Sano .481, Cave .436, Morrison .418 all match up well with Giolito pitch type. Twins may get overlooked here tonight with the other obvious choices out there. Giolito only Ks lefties at 13% and allows .406 xwoba to that side. Twins have been hitting and like to take them against right handed pitching. Dont overlook them tonight
Mets vs Holland. Hollad has not been terrible in his last outings averaging about 15 draftking points in his last 5 starts. Facing a mets team that has struggled most of the year but has been hitting recently. Ive heard some people on Holland and dont hate the idea of running him as the Mets dont particularly match up well. However they didnt matchup well with Pivetta either and knocked him out of the game early. Holland allows .361 xwoba to righties. Holland has changed his pitch mix since earlier in the year. Holland was throwing his curveball 25% and now hardly using it. He has decided to use his slider and sinker more and has really benefited him.
Athletics vs Colon. Athletics are going to be very chalky tonight facing Colon. The xwoba numbers are outstanding for Athletics with Chapman .720, Davis .661, Martini .775, Olson .427, and Lowrie .417. Swinging strike in Oakland favor as well. Bartolo does not k either side and Oakland bats are extremely hot. Here is the issue. The weather looks very favorable for Bartolo tonight. Its going to be around 60 degrees at game time. I am not advising using Bartolo tonight but if doing multiple lines I would advise limiting your exposure from a full Oakland stack to maybe a bat or two in another line. He could very well troll here and kill some major chalk. He did this against Seattle a couple games ago when I mentioned this and the weather is much better for him tonight. I am likely running 2 lines tonight, one with a few Athletics and one without.
Mariners vs Cole. Cano .424, Seager .367, Maybin .374, Cruz .353 are the xwoba leaders for Seattle tonight against Cole. Cole Ks lefties at 31% and righties at 26%. Swinging strike not in Coles favor tonight. Cole could do well here but not seeing this as a ceiling game opportunity.
Giants vs Wheeler. McCutchen .375 is really the only Giant batter that looks decent tonight. Wheeler appears to be the chalk and for good reason. Swinging strike looks good for Wheeler as well. This chalk I think you can eat and good for cash games
Cardinals vs Wood. I am hearing that Wood may be a little chalky tonight especially as a SP2 option on draftkings. The xwoba numbers are not overwhelming for Cardinal bats with O’Neil at .775, Jose .399, Dejong .366 but the swinging strike looks to be an issue tonight with all St Louis batters having very little swing and miss on Wood pitches. I will have a very low owned Cardinals stack tonight as the Reds had a similar matchup against Bumgarner Saturday night although I will say Cardinal batters look better in regards to Swinging strike. I will avoid Wood tonight for this reason as I feel there is no K upside at all.
Rays vs Lopez. Choi .542, Bauers .452, Wendle .381, Cron .368 look like the best match ups. Lopez in a very small sample has allowed .375 xwoba to both sides. He strikes out lefties at 13% and 17% to right. No interest in the rookie pitcher and likely little interest in Rays other than 1 offs.
Rangers vs Fiers. Choo .664, Odor .377, Profar .390, Andrus .405, Mazara .380 and Guzman .359. With all those great xwoba numbers it looks like it could be overwhelming for Fiers. Fiers allows .364 xwoba to lefties which doesnt help. But I will say Fiers has been good this year and limited some good teams. Also the swinging strike favors Fiers which could benefit. I am good with attacking the chalk here for a gpp share of Fiers. But also good with the mentioned bats.
Blue Jays vs Cashner. Pillar .407, Morales .384, Granderson .360, Smoak .372. Cashner allows .373 xwoba allowed to lefties and .351 to right. Cashner only Ks 13% of hitters and it appears to be a neutral matchup on swinging strike. Blue Jays have been hitting and think they continue tonight.