NASCAR kicks off the summer schedule this week with a trip to the “Monster Mile” in Dover Delaware for a 400-lap skirmish on the concrete oval. Dover has long had a reputation of being hard on both man and machine. Even in today’s NASCAR where the drivers are toned athletes and the cars are nearly bulletproof the races tend to be high attrition events with a fair amount wrecks. A DFS players worst nightmare.
My advice would be to play light, have exposure to several drivers to minimize the damage should you lose one and hope for the best. Let’s get to the picks!
My top tier of drivers this week consists of four picks. Martin Truex ($9,900) leads the group. It is a home game for the NJ native and he has run exceptionally well there in the 78 car. In the last four at Dover, Truex has a win and three top-10 finishes and led just under a quarter of the laps run in those races. Truex is also hot right now having scored 100+ DK points in two of his last three starts. Lock him in and build around the 78.
My next two picks come from the Penske team. I like both Brad Keselowski ($10,000) and Joey Logano ($9,200). As a team over the last four races, the duo has scored four top-10 finishes with an Avg. finish just outside of the top ten. Both are veteran guys and I would trust them to get a better finish than say, Kyle Larson this week. Pair one of the two with Truex this week to build a winner.
My last top tier pick goes to Kevin Harvick ($10,100). Harvick is a threat wherever the series goes and Dover has been no exception over his last four starts there. A win and two top-10s and over 500 laps led is enough for me to put “Happy” on my team.
I have three mid-level picks this week. The first goes to Kasey Kahne ($7700). Kahne three top-10s in four starts and should give the payroll flexibility to add that third big gun to your lineup. Matt Kenseth ($9500) is priced a little higher than what I would normally call mid-tier he has to make this list somewhere. Kenseth can get around Dover with the best of them. My third and final mid-tier slot will go to Denny Hamlin ($9,000), much like his teammate Kenseth, Denny is priced too high to be considered mid-level, but he is a possible top-5 finisher at a top-10 finisher price. There is some value to be had with him.
The low tier is full of value this week. Paul Menard ($6700) ranks 13th Avg finish over the last four races at Dover. Danica Patrick ($5900) ranks 20th among active drivers the last two years at Dover. Regan Smith ($6100) is driving a car (43) that has averaged a 10th place finish at Dover since 2015. Teammates Chris Buescher ($6300) and A.J. Allmendinger ($6200) are very much in play when looking for value. David Ragan ($5100) is insanely low priced for his experience level in Cup.
I am sure you are asking, “What about Jimmie Johnson?” The fact is he is just too high priced for me this week. There are just as good lower priced options on the board that allows for building a deeper lineup. I am also fading Kyle Busch this week as I feel like the “Monster” will take a bite out of him due to his post-race antics after the 600 last week.
Best of luck everybody!!!!