DK NFL GPP Plays – Week 14
Draftkings Week 14 GPP Plays
I’ve looked at the slate this week and I’m going to take a different approach to my article this week. It looks like we have a week where Gio Bernard and Josh Gordon are going to be massive chalk in both cash games and GPPs alike. It’s somewhat likely one or both of these guys end up in winning lines in the bigger fields but it’s definitely not a lock.
Now I’m not going to be the guy to tell you to fade these guys in cash and I’m not necessarily recommending you fade them In GPPs either…but let’s take a look at some strategies for how to fade these guys in large fields.
One way to differentiate is with direct pivots off monster chalk guys with similarly priced low owned guys with upside. That will be a tough route to go with Gio this week as there really isn’t a whole lot to like around him in the low $3000 salary range. Gordon is a bit of a different story as you have a few guys with some possibilities. Sammy Watkins is a high upside play with a relatively low likelihood of outscoring Gordon this week but it’s certainly not out of the question and you can get him at a fraction of the ownership. Doug Baldwin is in a horrible matchup this week but is another guy who has the potential to post a big number. With Gordon projecting to be owned by close to half the field and Baldwin and Watkins looking like single digit guys the risk doesn’t have to pay off often for you to make a huge gain on the field with the right break.
Another way to leverage against chalk monsters is by picking teammates who by having big days are likely mean the chalk doesn’t get there. Playing guys like Corey Coleman, David Njoku, Duke Johnson, and Isaiah Crowell are great leverage darts off the Gordon ownership. None of these guys projects close to Gordon this week but if you pick the right guy who gets in the end zone a couple of times and Gordon ends up with a line like 6-55-0 you are in a solid spot. With Gio you can look to AJ Green, Tyler Kroft, and Brandon Lafell as difference makers although AJ himself is projected to be pretty highly owned this week as well. I imagine a lot of those Green owners will have Gio in there line as well though because of the way pricing works out this week so I think the naked AJ play does have some merit.
And pricing brings me to my final point. Roster construction is likely to go pretty chalky this week with guys sticking in Bernard and Gordon for $8600 and working from there. This is going to leave the lower and mid range guys at both running back and wide receiver unusually underowned. I’m not going to list off a bunch of names but looking at both positions in the $4000-6900 salary range there are tons of upside guys who are worth looks this week. Guys like Melvin Gordon, Tyreek Hill, Todd Gurley, and Keenan Allen are going to see inflated ownerships because of the 2 chalk monsters and I’m not saying any of these guys are bad plays but I am saying they may be owned more than they should. This creates opportunity for savvy DFS players to build solid balanced lineups that while not likely to outrun the chalky constructions have the real possibility of getting there in a huge field where only one line takes the huge prize.
Let me finish by saying by all means feel free to play Bernard and Gordon in your GPPs this weekend. I will have some exposure myself although I plan on being underweight to the field by a good margin. It’s a lot easier to win a big GPP by fading these guys and having them bust than by playing them and having them go nuts. It’s true if you fade and they go nuts you are ruined for the week but owning them and having them go nuts is far from a guarantee of a huge cash. If you do use these guys though pay close attention to your roster construction and be mindful of differentiating your lineup in some way.
Let’s get that #dojodough!!