CFL Week 10 Cash/GPP Strategies
CFL Week 10 Cash/GPP Strategies
I’m coming out of left field with a CFL article this week to warm me up for the NFL season but rest assured I have been grinding the 3rd season of Draftkings CFL DFS hard this season and I am ready for another exciting week. Instead of simply listing off plays that you can get anywhere I’m going to talk a little about strategies for Week 10 which are going to be a little dependent on some running back news that we don’t have yet on Wednesday as I am writing this. That said I’m going to move forward with the information we have available.
Cash/High $ ($33 and above) strategy
The Montreal defense is REALLY bad and while I’ve been off the Mike Reilly train to an extent (especially in GPP) the last few weeks I think he’s a lock and load this week. For those who actually watch CFL games, and I’ve seen everyone this year with the exception of Week 8 when I was on vacation, you know Reilly really hasn’t looked like himself recently. I wouldn’t let this convince you to fade him though against this defense. Couple this with the fact I can’t really make an argument for any other QB this week as a cash game play and this is basically a free space believe it or not even at an almost 12K salary. As always Reilly’s floor is aided by the fact he stays in at the goal line, unlike most other CFL QBs.
Normally I am a big proponent of plugging in a value guy at the RB slot and this year, unlike in years past, I often run 2 other RBs in my flex spots. This week is going to be interesting as we have at least Jackson, Gable, and Johnson all questionable. I’m not really interested in any of those 3 guys if they do play but it is possible we could get an interesting punt play starting at RB for Edmonton this week which would really shake up cash line construction. We will likely see Travon Van in for BC again if Johnson were to miss. His price is up about $1000 from last week and I don’t see him as the plug and play he was last week. At this point with the position in complete flux, and several value WRs available, I am going to stick Andrew Harris in at my RB slot. Even if value opens up Harris will almost assuredly make my cash game cut this week against an Ottawa D that doesn’t scare me and he will be in a good portion of my high $ gpp lines. Starting with Reilly/Harris this week I think is almost a must.
Wide receiver is where things get interesting. We have plenty of value guys available and we are likely going to need to play at least one to fit Reilly/Harris. Dominique Rhymes, RJ Harris, Kevin Elliott (particularly if Ricky Collins Jr is out), Lemar Durant, and Jamill Smith are all clearly on the radar. My general strategy all year long has been to punt at least one WR and try to avoid spending up where the higher end guys this year seem to flop more often than in years past. My favorite punt right now is Elliott who has been seeing targets and I think Lulay will pick apart the Argos D this week. I am just slightly higher on RJ Harris than Rhymes just because we have a larger sample size from Harris this year and he is clearly underpriced. I’ll be mostly avoiding the Ottawa passing attack this week as I think Winnipeg will get pressure on Trevor Harris and I’m not a big fan of the Calgary guys traveling to Regina. You could argue Ellingson is underpriced but his break out last game, and I called it in our chat before it happened, was clearly a result of Harris having all day to throw against the weakest defense in the league. At the top end of the spectrum, the tough decision this week will be Duke Williams/Derel Walker. It’s remotely possible we can squeeze both in if enough RB value opens up or if you don’t mind punting a RB and a WR. Right now I’m taking a wait and see on what value opens up before I make my final decision and I won’t claim to have the crystal ball on which of these guys goes nuts. Like I said the Montreal defense is really bad and both of these guys have huge ceilings this weekend. The bottom line is it looks like an Edmonton stack in cash this week will be the way to go we just have to wait and see what the depth chart looks like.
Defense in the CFL is always dicey and in cash, it seems every week one team ends up being the chalk. Calgary has been the team most weeks this year but at $5600 I’m really not sure how things will play out this week. I’m a huge proponent of fitting a defense in after you have decided on your skill players and this week will be no different. I have to imagine Calgary will be relatively owned even at this price but the quality of defense in the CFL doesn’t necessarily equate to fantasy points and Roy Finch has unfortunately retired. I never mind playing Winnipeg or Saskatchewan at home and most likely I’ll end up with one of those two squads this week for cash.
Low $ GPP
I take a totally different approach for the lower dollar GPP fields with bigger numbers of entrants (I’m talking about $1-$8 here primarily). Personally I’ll be mostly fading Reilly in the bigger pools this week as he is going to be mega chalk and for good reason. I’ll have my exposure at the higher buy ins. If you are only playing low $ gpps I would probably go for at least 50% exposure to Reilly this week as his probability of being the highest points per dollar scorer is about as high as it gets. Blowout/injury/fluke special teams majors are about his only risks this week as he will have all day to throw and there is little this Montreal d can do to stop him. That said I will be loading up on Travis Lulay this week as I think he is going to have a solid game against this Toronto defense. Lulay’s game on paper last week looked terrible but he was a drop (by Ricky Collins Jr) and a called back major (on an unnecessary penalty) connection with Burnham away from having a really big fantasy output. He did this while being surprisingly under huge amounts of pressure most of the game which is really my only concern this week. Toronto won’t bring the same pass rush as Edmonton but I didn’t expect Edmonton to get as much pressure as they did. The good thing is Lulay is such a skilled passer and a gamer and even if Toronto gets some pressure Lulay should eat here. I can see stacking him with Elliott (chalky receiver) or perhaps Burnham. Manny just doesn’t look involved this year and unfortunately his best years may be behind him but Burnham I think is capable of a big game even though we haven’t seen one this year. I’ll likely side with Elliott here though and I doubt I will end up with much Burnham exposure at all. If you want to drop down a bit in salary you can also take a dart with Bethel-Thompson coming off a huge game and I’ll likely have a few lines with him but I much prefer Lulay on the other side. The other 5 QBs this week are all tough to justify and I will be treading lightly. I will have zero Collaros and likely zero of the Montreal QB depending on who replaces Manziel. If I play Nichols I will stack him with Andrew Harris because nobody ever takes that route and there are potential major hookups there. I am generally higher on Bo Levi Mitchell than most this year but in Regina I will not have much exposure outside of a dollar dart.
Harris is priced up enough at RB you can fade him in some lines although he has some of the highest upside on the slate so I’ll definitely be exposed although not as much as in the higher dollar events as he is likely to be quite chalky as well. I like Chris Rainey a lot in these type contests as he always goes low owned and has quite a bit of upside in the return game. I paired him some with Van last week in a contrarian move and even though Van is priced up now I may potentially pair them in a lineup or two simply for differentiation from the field. Tre Mason sees the Calgary D so don’t go crazy on him but he’s cheap enough to hit value with a little room for upside and I doubt many will be on him although the log chasers may have some exposure. James Wilder and William Powell are squarely in play for GPP upside and will see a good deal of my lineups. A fun little angle would be to stack Lulay/Elliott with Martese Jackson and the Toronto D. You don’t kill yourself in the CFL stacking your D against your QB stack and if Jackson were to break one this just means it’s more likely Lulay will need to be throwing the ball. You could also take the other side in this game with a Rainey/BC stack along with Bethel-Thompson/Green or Bethel-Thompson/Wilder. This sounds crazy but trust me this approach is risky but it can and has worked many times in the past.
At WR Williams and Walker likely have the most upside on this slate just as Reilly does at QB. Reilly/Williams and Reilly/Walker will likely be the chalk pairings by a wide margin. As I said before this is a strong approach but if you want to go other ways you can use either of these guys naked (without Reilly). I suppose you could pair them without Reilly as well but that might be a stretch as that would imply Reilly has a huge game as well. Probably a better strategy if pairing the two would be to go ahead and use Reilly as well as I don’t think you’ll see a lot of lineups with all 3. I’ll sprinkle in several of the value guys I mentioned in the cash game part and likely take some darts with the riskier guys this week like Jorden, Spencer, Green, and Adams but mostly I’ll be hitting these fields with Lulay stacks and watching him light up the board this week!
Defensively I’ll use the same strategy I outlined above.
Good luck and get that #dojodough!!