MLB Favorite Plays
Favorite Plays 3.30.18
• The Yankees I’m sure are going to be popular again today but I think there will be pieces you need to have. Gary Sanchez not only a great hitter but gets a prime matchup with Aaron Sanchez. Sanchez has poor strikeout % of only 7% to right handed batters and Sanchez throws the majority of his pitches in the middle of the zone or up high. Sanchez has a 95.6 average exit velocity to the middle of the zone and 92 up high.
• Robinson Chirinos facing Keuchel sounds overwhelming and for that reason he will be lower owned. Chirinos has always been a favorites play for therotodojo.com and has a decent matchup tomorrow. Keuchel throw 66.7% of his pitches down in the zone. Chirinos hits decent down in the zone and gets the platoon split with a .471 slugging percentage to ground ball pitchers
• Yasmani Grandal gets to face the aging Johnny Cueto. Cueto struggles a lot last year and think he may be past his prime. Cueto allowed 37.6% hard to lefties while Grandal hit right handed pitching at 38.7%. Grandal also has a slugging if .525 vs flyball pitchers.
• Eric Hosmer facing Chacin in a pitcher friendly park where Chacin has pitched very well might not be advised but Chacin only strikes out lefties at a 16.1% clip and allows 33.1% hard to that side. Hosmer in turn has a .519 slugging against neutral pitchers and only strikes out to righties 16.9% of the time. I’ll have some exposure to Chacin tonight but may hedge some with a player like Hosmer
• Carlos Santana facing Foltynewicz is a prime spot for a great contact hitter playing in a ballpark that allows a ton of homers. Folty only strikes out lefties at a18.9% clip and Carlos always makes good contact. Folty is a flyball pitcher and Carlos has a .477 slugging against Flyball pitchers. Folty typically pitches up and down in the zone and Carlos has great launch angles in both those categories
• Cody Bellinger- Dodgers had a rough start last night and were shutout by the Giants in there home opener. I’ve already mentioned the aging Cueto and Bellinger has a great matchup as well. Bellinger owns a .662 slugging against flyball pitchers and is batting .455 against Cueto in his career. Bellinger also has a 43.7% hard percentage against right handed pitching. While Cueto is a Flyball pitcher he keeps the majority of pitches down in the zone where Bellinger has an average 9.3 launch angle and 87.1 exit velocity
• A boom or bust call against the platoon advantage is Brandon Belt. Belt typically was a better hitter away from home last year and facing a tough lefty in Alex Wood. Wood only allowed a 16.8% hard to lefties last year but Belt slugs 0.557 against ground ball pitchers. 60% of Woods pitches are down in the zone which is where Belt really mashes. Belt has a 12.4 degree launch angle against balls down in the zone and an average exit velocity of 89.8!
• Chase Utley- another Dodger and you can see a theme here I want to attack Cueto with lefties. Utley has a hard of 37.7% and Cueto allows 37.6%. Utley doesn’t have the slugging I usually look for when picking bats but has a career .311 average against Cueto with 2 homeruns
• Ian Kinsler is supposed to be back in the lineup tonight and should be in the leadoff spot hitting in front of Trout. I mentioned this yesterday but players in front of Trout always excel and is a great attacking point. Ian faces the lefty of Manaea whom allows 45.5 hard to right handers while Kinsler has a hard % of 36.9% and only strikes out at a 10.9% clip against lefties. Small sample but Kinsler is 2 for 3 against Manaea with a double and triple
• Eduardo Nunez gets a favorable matchup and a player I like to roster. Nunez is a batter that typically doesn’t strikeout much and is going to make great contact. Nunez had an inside the park homer yesterday and gets to face the lefty Blake Snell. I do like him better up in the order but in that stacked Red Sox lineup he can do damage. Snell allows a 33.5% hard to right handed bats and Nunez only strikes out at a 10.1% clip. This is the type of matchup you want for a cash player especially if high in the lineup
• Kris Bryant faces off with the lefty Caleb Smith whom has been quite wild in his small sample in the big leagues. Caleb Smith has a 1.66 whip by allowing 21 hits and 10 walks in 18.2 innings. Caleb does have an ability to rack up strikeouts though with almost a strikeout per inning. The control is the issue. Bryant slugs .603 against flyball pitchers. Caleb has allowed a hard of 34.2% while Bryant hits lefties at a 35.6 hard
• Nolan Arenado gets to facing a great lefty in Robbie Ray. Ray is a strikeout pitcher and strikes out right handed batters at a 31.2% clip but Arenado only strikes out at a 10.1% clip to lefties. Arenado hit a homer off a lefty last night and slugs .519 against flyball pitchers. It’s a bit risky with Rays ability to strikeout batters but Arenado owns a .317 average against Ray with 4 homeruns
• Zack Cozart didn’t disappoint in his Angels debut yesterday and I like him again tonight. Although likely not in that coveted leadoff spot in front of Trout he is still in a good spot. Cozart makes contact by only striking out at a 13.9% clip against lefties and Manaea allows 36.9% hard against righties
• Corey Seager again another Dodger lefty I want against Cueto. I already mentioned Cueto allows 37.6% hard to lefties and Seager hits right handed pitching hard at 42.8%. Seager also slugs 0.629 against fly ball pitchers and also owns a .370 average for his career against Cueto with a homerun
• Andrelton Simmons is not your typical power guy that you are going to roster for homeruns. But he is that contact guy that is not going to strikeout much and give you chances. Manaea allows the 36.9% hard to righties and Simmons only strikes out 11.7% of the time to lefties. I like Angels again tonight and he is a safe play here
• Brandon Crawford is not typically a player you want to take in this type of matchup. It is a lefty vs lefty matchup that most just simply see and move on. But this is where Crawford power shows up. I always get Crawford at sub 3% own because no one sees his strength against lefties. While Wood only allows 16.8% hard to lefties which is elite Crawford only strikes out 16.8% of the time to lefties. Crawford owns a .455 slugging against ground ball pitchers but the bvp is what is great here as well. Crawford is 4 for 9 against Wood with 2 homeruns against Wood!!
• Trout-yes 0-6 yesterday. But still great spot for elite hitter. Judge, Stanton, Herrera, Nick Williams, Reddick, Cain, Chris Young, Khris Davis, AJ Pollock, Betts and JD Martinez
• Price Chacin Pivetta(although Braves right handers look good), Hendricks, Ray(I think a risk tonight)
• Red Sox right, Phillies left + Rhys, Angels, Dbacks right, Athletics right. Always Astros and Yankees in play but will be real chalky